Tutorial: How to use prediction markets and inflation data to practice data-driven decision-making

If you are an analyst or an analytical leader, how do you practice data-driven decision making? One low-cost way is to use prediction markets. They give you a concrete target and a natural feedback mechanism when the market resolves. This tutorial explores that process. There is an open prediction market on polymarket.com based on July … [Read more…]

Scenario Planning, with Data, on Steroids

In Great By Choice, Jim Collins teaches us that there is no new normal… there is always just uncertainty and change. Predicting the future is hard. The best leaders and organizations, as such, plan for multiple futures and hedge accordingly. They plan probabilistically. One tool that can assist in scenario planning is Monte Carlo simulation. … [Read more…]