Should I be Surprised When Someone Predicts Perfectly?
I run prediction markets within Target. In order to estimate how surprised I should be by streaks of correct predictions by individuals, I use toy simulations.
data analysis
Change Point Detection (Part 2): An Operations Use Case
A common challenge with control charts: how much history should you use to create the limits? Change point detection can help and I use the Cass Freight Index to demonstrate.
Change Point Detection (Part 1): Benchmarking Piketty’s Inflation Chart
What comes first, the story or the data? I’ve been exploring that delicate balance with change-point algorithms and a chart from Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century. #dataanalytics
Datafying Vision Docs
Coaching can be #data driven too, we just need to think about it in the right way.
Rethinking Proximity
Remote work has been awesome for knowledge workers over the past year. It’s going to get even better, as long as we optimize for time and relationship over spatial proximity.
Scenario Planning, with Data, on Steroids
In Great By Choice, Jim Collins teaches us that there is no new normal… there is always just uncertainty and change. Predicting the future is hard. The best leaders and organizations, as such, plan for multiple futures and hedge accordingly. They plan probabilistically. One tool that can assist in scenario planning is Monte Carlo simulation. … [Read more…]
Back of the Envelope Machine Learning
A demo for thinking about how to use ML to steer decision making.
Second Guessing the Optimized Answer
One approach to problem-solving is to use a program to find the optimized solution. This applies broadly. For example, your problem might be finding the lowest cost location to build a distribution center (DC), finding the right people to add to your team/company, or determining how to get to the local Target. When systems create … [Read more…]
Building a Forecasting Framework for Supply Chain with R
It’s hard to beat the value-add of a good forecast in supply chain. Supply chains are long – thousands of miles with dozens of participants. Without a decent forecast you’ll end up with an abundance of waste in some way, shape, or form. We forecast for manufacturing products, securing transportation capacity, obtaining & using warehouse … [Read more…]
Hands-On Supply Chain with Machine Learning
I recently finished the third course in MIT’s Supply Chain MicroMasters program, Supply Chain Design, hosted on their EdX platform. I scored an 86% on the final exam with an overall grade of ‘B’ for the class (which I expect will end up being average). Considering time constraints with work (especially working in supply chain … [Read more…]